วันเสาร์ที่ 30 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2556

+++ รวมความหมายของ Backtest/Optimize Report ของ MT4 ...อย่าคิดว่า ทุก Indicator/EA จะใช้ได้หมดกับทุก Time Frame หรือ ทุกคู่ แต่เราควรหรือน่าจะทำการทดสอบก่อนนำไปใช้

     สำหรับคนที่ชอบหา EA/Indicator ต่างๆ มาเล่น อย่าลืมนะครับก่อนนำไปใช้ ลองเอามาทำ Optimize ดูก่อน เพื่อดูว่ามันเหมาะกับ tf ไหน เหมาะกับคู่เงินไหน และค่า ที่เหมาะมันควรจะใช้เท่าไหร่ และพอได้ค่าแล้วก็มาสุ่มทำ back test เป็นช่วง ๆ อีกทีหนึ่ง ... 

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ส่วน Report แต่ละค่านั้นมีรายละเอียดประมาณนี้Refer : http://articles.mql4.com/83

  • Gross profit, the summed up profit for all profitable transactions;
  • Gross loss, the summed up loss for all unprofitable trasnactions;
  • Total net profit, shows the difference between gross profit and gross loss:

    TotalNetProfit = GrossProfit - GrossLoss
  • Profit factor, shows the ratio between gross profit and gross loss:

    ProfitFactor = GrossProfit / GrossLoss
  • Expected payoff, to be calculated as follows:
    Expected Payoff = (ProfitTrades / TotalTrades) * (GrossProfit / ProfitTrades) - 
                      (LossTrades / TotalTrades) * (GrossLoss / LossTrades)
    where:
    • TotalTrades - total amount of trades;
    • ProfitTrades - the amount of profitable transactions;
    • LossTrades - the amount of losing transactions;
    • GrossProfit - the summed up profit;
    • GrossLoss - the summed up loss.
  • Absolute drawdown is the difference between the initial deposit and the smalles value of balance within testing:
    AbsoluteDrawDown = InitialDeposit - MinimalBalance
  • Maximal drawdown is the highest difference between one of local upper extremums of the balance graph and the following lower extremums:
    MaximalDrawDown = Max of (Maximal Peak - next Minimal Peak)
    The basic stages of changing the maximal drawdown value within testing are given in the picture below. The total maximal drawdown value is in the thick arrows.
  • Other results shown in the "Report" tab are obtained using the simplest mathematical calculations.
    • Total trades - total amount of trades made by the expert within testing;
    • Short positions (won %) - total amount of short positions and the precentage of profitable ones among them (profitable short positions / total amount of short positions * 100%);
    • Long positions (won %) - total amount of long positions and the precentage of profitable ones among them (profitable long positions / total amount of long positions * 100%);
    • Profit trades (% of total) - total amount of profitable transactions and percentage of the total amount of transactions (ProfitTrades / TotalTrades * 100%);
    • Loss trades (% of total) - total amount of losing transactions and percentage of the total amount of transactions (LossTrades / TotalTrades * 100%);
    • Largest profit trade - the largest profitable trade among profitable trades;
    • Largest loss trade - the largest losing trade among losing trades;
    • Average profit trade - averaged size of profit of profit trades (GrossProfit / ProfitTrades);
    • Average loss trade - averaged size of loss among losing trades (GrossLoss / LossTrades);
    • Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) - maximum consecutive amount of wins among profitable series of trades and the summed up profit within this series;
    • Maximum consecutive losses (loss in money) - maximum consecutive amount of losses among losing series of trades and the summed up loss within this series;
    • Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) - maximum profit of a consecutive series of profitable trades and the amount of trades in this series;
    • Maximal consecutive loss (count of losses) - maximum loss of a consecutive series of losing trades and the amount of trades in this series;
    • Average consecutive wins - averaged amount of trades in consecutive profitable series.
    • Average consecutive losses - averaged amount of trades in consecutive losing series.

    Colors used for modeling quality diagram

    The following colors are used in the color diagram:

    • Lime - modeling on minutes, marked with 7 in the picture below.
    • Deeper green colors show modeling on large timeframes, from M5 to H4.
    • Pink color - pure fractal modeling without data of a smaller timeframe, marked with 2 in the picture.
    • Gray color - modeling limitation by date, marked with 1 in the picture.




    Expected Payoff = (ProfitTrades / TotalTrades) * (GrossProfit / ProfitTrades) - (LossTrades / TotalTrades) * (GrossLoss / LossTrades) =
    =  (ProfitTrades / TotalTrades) * (GrossProfit / ProfitTrades) - (LossTrades / TotalTrades) * (GrossLoss / LossTrades)  =
    = GrossProfit  / TotalTrades -  GrossLoss /TotalTrades =
    = ( GrossProfit - GrossLoss ) /  TotalTrades =
    =  TotalNetProfit / TotalTrades
    
    
    Expected Payoff = TotalNetProfit / TotalTrades









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